Monday, October 4, 2010

Who's Making Money

One of the great things about flying first class is that you often get to meet some interesting people. During the early eighties, I found myself on a flight from Los Angles to New York sitting next to an unknown, aspiring, young director named Oliver Stone, who was on his way to pitch a new film idea to potential investors.

Over six hours I enjoyed one of the most interesting conversations of my career, covering jungle combat in Vietnam, the ins and outs of movie making, and the harsh realities of Hollywood style accounting. The movie he was pitching turned out to be the 1987 industry cult classic, Wall Street.

The film sparked one of the greatest guessing games of all time, with everyone attempting to identify the real people behind the fictional characters. The villain, Gordon Gekko, was easy. That was Ivan Boesky, a risk arbitrageur who became the target of one of the first high profile insider trading case. Other links with reality were more obscure, and many real life traders on the floor of the NYSE simply played themselves as extras.

In the sequel, it is much easier to play who’s who, thanks to the financial crash that seems like was happening only yesterday. Gordon Gekko, released from federal prison, this time turns into legendary hedge fund manager John Paulson, whose character turns $100 million into $1.2 billion in a matter of months through buying up cheap credit default swaps on subprime debt. Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner are easy to pick out in a crucial meeting at the New York Fed. The chairman of “Keller Zabel” (Bear Stearns), one “Louis Zabel” (Ace Greenberg), throws himself in front of a train on the Lexington line. Well, this is fiction, after all. The $2 dollar/share sale price gave it all away.

Many people played themselves. The whole CNBC crowd was there, their descriptions of the crash so realistic that I thought it might be archival footage. So were Warren Buffet, Nouriel Roubini, Jim Chanos, and other notables. In fact, Chanos managed to get Stone to change the original script, switching the bad guy role from a hedge fund to Goldman Sachs (GS), known as “Churchill Schwartz,” as it should be. They are easily identified as the Wall Street firm that took out a big short in housing debt just before the crash.

Shia Labeouf does an outstanding job playing Jake Moore, an aggressive, razor sharp, earnest young investment banker. I have known so many like him over the years, both working for me and at competitors, that his performance really rung true. Michael Douglas, who has aged dramatically, seemed to be simply replaying the same role that he has in countless earlier films. To understand their characters, several actors opened up online trading accounts and did quite well in the market, with Shia alone reportedly booking some $20,000 in profits.

There are a few minor flaws in the film. It could have used more editing. There is a mention of “50% leverage” of subprime debt, when the correct figure was 50 times. The Chinese government investor doesn’t act like a real person from the People’s Republic, but as an American with a bad accent. No one has yet figures out the true meaning of Eli Wallach’s repeated bird calls.

In this incredibly target rich environment, Stone seems to take aim at so many enemies, That even an insider myself got confused. However, these are trivial complaints. If you want to have a hoot, go see the film, but expect to provide a simultaneous translation about all of the different instruments and strategies if you bring any non financial types with you.

Not wanting to spoil the ending, I’ll say no more, except that you can buy the original wall Street movie from Amazon by clicking here at http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-Charlie-Sheen/dp/B00003CXDB/ref=sr_1_2?s=dvd&ie=UTF8&qid=1285432060&sr=1-2

And thanks to Oliver’s advice, I never got involved in financially backing a film project, despite countless invitations to do. It was the best trade I never did.

To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.


It just isn’t within him to see himself as anything other than a transformational irresistible force. Remember, he’s the one we were waiting for and he “has a gift”. Pathologies like this can never admit defeat and go away quietly.


Extrafishy on September 25, 2010 at 10:38 AM


I have a different view of “Cousin Eddie”


Ya see I think “Cousin Eddie” is a slacker who by the good fortunes of bein the right color was able to party his way through college, write no articles for the Law Review, fail at Wall Street, barely get a Law License and thanks to a gift of gab, skills honed as a street kid makin a livin off of rich white professor types, he was foisted upon America as the Greatest thing since dark bread!


He truly believes in socialism, redistribution, destruction of America as we are evil greedy, conquerors using far more than our share of resources and hurting the downtrodden in the process! (Lib College Professor Speak!)


But grifters are also canny about knwin when the gig is up and don’t particularly like rejection. So, as he sees his law making abilities are over. His socialist schemes will not pass House or senate, he will double down on rule by fiat, by Cabinet head decree, czars declarations, Executive Orders, and liberal justices rulings. This will preclude him ever being re-elected to anything ever, other than maybe a gig at the United Nations or ruler of Iran.

But, “Cousin Eddie’ doesn’t care about that he doesn’t want to work that hard. He told us his goal was to fundamentally transform America, to redistribute her wealth. Well his transformin and redistributin are about over and so is this lyin, corrupt, black liberation theologist fraud.

He is by the way doin a magnificent job of takin his Party and his media whores down with him!


Come Nov. 2nd the people will speak and the Tea party Patriots will stand in the breech between the corrupt socialists on both sides and freedom and liberty and the other!



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eric seiger eric seiger

One of the great things about flying first class is that you often get to meet some interesting people. During the early eighties, I found myself on a flight from Los Angles to New York sitting next to an unknown, aspiring, young director named Oliver Stone, who was on his way to pitch a new film idea to potential investors.

Over six hours I enjoyed one of the most interesting conversations of my career, covering jungle combat in Vietnam, the ins and outs of movie making, and the harsh realities of Hollywood style accounting. The movie he was pitching turned out to be the 1987 industry cult classic, Wall Street.

The film sparked one of the greatest guessing games of all time, with everyone attempting to identify the real people behind the fictional characters. The villain, Gordon Gekko, was easy. That was Ivan Boesky, a risk arbitrageur who became the target of one of the first high profile insider trading case. Other links with reality were more obscure, and many real life traders on the floor of the NYSE simply played themselves as extras.

In the sequel, it is much easier to play who’s who, thanks to the financial crash that seems like was happening only yesterday. Gordon Gekko, released from federal prison, this time turns into legendary hedge fund manager John Paulson, whose character turns $100 million into $1.2 billion in a matter of months through buying up cheap credit default swaps on subprime debt. Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner are easy to pick out in a crucial meeting at the New York Fed. The chairman of “Keller Zabel” (Bear Stearns), one “Louis Zabel” (Ace Greenberg), throws himself in front of a train on the Lexington line. Well, this is fiction, after all. The $2 dollar/share sale price gave it all away.

Many people played themselves. The whole CNBC crowd was there, their descriptions of the crash so realistic that I thought it might be archival footage. So were Warren Buffet, Nouriel Roubini, Jim Chanos, and other notables. In fact, Chanos managed to get Stone to change the original script, switching the bad guy role from a hedge fund to Goldman Sachs (GS), known as “Churchill Schwartz,” as it should be. They are easily identified as the Wall Street firm that took out a big short in housing debt just before the crash.

Shia Labeouf does an outstanding job playing Jake Moore, an aggressive, razor sharp, earnest young investment banker. I have known so many like him over the years, both working for me and at competitors, that his performance really rung true. Michael Douglas, who has aged dramatically, seemed to be simply replaying the same role that he has in countless earlier films. To understand their characters, several actors opened up online trading accounts and did quite well in the market, with Shia alone reportedly booking some $20,000 in profits.

There are a few minor flaws in the film. It could have used more editing. There is a mention of “50% leverage” of subprime debt, when the correct figure was 50 times. The Chinese government investor doesn’t act like a real person from the People’s Republic, but as an American with a bad accent. No one has yet figures out the true meaning of Eli Wallach’s repeated bird calls.

In this incredibly target rich environment, Stone seems to take aim at so many enemies, That even an insider myself got confused. However, these are trivial complaints. If you want to have a hoot, go see the film, but expect to provide a simultaneous translation about all of the different instruments and strategies if you bring any non financial types with you.

Not wanting to spoil the ending, I’ll say no more, except that you can buy the original wall Street movie from Amazon by clicking here at http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-Charlie-Sheen/dp/B00003CXDB/ref=sr_1_2?s=dvd&ie=UTF8&qid=1285432060&sr=1-2

And thanks to Oliver’s advice, I never got involved in financially backing a film project, despite countless invitations to do. It was the best trade I never did.

To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.


It just isn’t within him to see himself as anything other than a transformational irresistible force. Remember, he’s the one we were waiting for and he “has a gift”. Pathologies like this can never admit defeat and go away quietly.


Extrafishy on September 25, 2010 at 10:38 AM


I have a different view of “Cousin Eddie”


Ya see I think “Cousin Eddie” is a slacker who by the good fortunes of bein the right color was able to party his way through college, write no articles for the Law Review, fail at Wall Street, barely get a Law License and thanks to a gift of gab, skills honed as a street kid makin a livin off of rich white professor types, he was foisted upon America as the Greatest thing since dark bread!


He truly believes in socialism, redistribution, destruction of America as we are evil greedy, conquerors using far more than our share of resources and hurting the downtrodden in the process! (Lib College Professor Speak!)


But grifters are also canny about knwin when the gig is up and don’t particularly like rejection. So, as he sees his law making abilities are over. His socialist schemes will not pass House or senate, he will double down on rule by fiat, by Cabinet head decree, czars declarations, Executive Orders, and liberal justices rulings. This will preclude him ever being re-elected to anything ever, other than maybe a gig at the United Nations or ruler of Iran.

But, “Cousin Eddie’ doesn’t care about that he doesn’t want to work that hard. He told us his goal was to fundamentally transform America, to redistribute her wealth. Well his transformin and redistributin are about over and so is this lyin, corrupt, black liberation theologist fraud.

He is by the way doin a magnificent job of takin his Party and his media whores down with him!


Come Nov. 2nd the people will speak and the Tea party Patriots will stand in the breech between the corrupt socialists on both sides and freedom and liberty and the other!



The Birmingham <b>News</b> Pink Edition: Supporting the fight against <b>...</b>

Reports on the work being done in our community to fight the disease and sharing the stories of breast cancer survivors.

Denver Broncos <b>News</b> - Horse Tracks - 10/4/10 - Mile High Report

Your daily Cup of Orange and Blue Coffee....Horse Tracks!

&quot;One in three households&quot; have Wii console | <b>News</b>

Nintendo has revealed that one in three households in the UK contain a Wii console, while over 11 million people - around...


eric seiger eric seiger


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