The big idea
Harbinger Capital Partners took a majority stake in LightSquared back in March. At that time Harbinger laid out an ambitious proposal that uses the spectrum holdings of two satellite companies as a means to break into the U.S. wireless market. I covered them here:
The planned network would launch before the third quarter of 2011 and cover 9 million people, with trials set initially for Denver and Phoenix. The next milestone is that 100 million people have to be covered by the end of 2012, 145 million by the end of 2013 and at least 260 million people in the United States by the end of 2015. Harbinger said in its statements to the FCC that all major markets will be installed by the end of the second quarter of 2013.
In an interview today, Frank Boulben, chief marketing officer of LightSquared, said the company would meet those dates, and that so far LightSquared has been negotiating leases with the “main tower companies” in the U.S. for space for some of the 40,000 base stations the company, or rather NSN, plans to deploy.
The nitty gritty details
Harbinger is taking advantage of a ruling made in 2003 by the Federal Communications Commission that allows satellite firms to also offer terrestrial wireless services as long as they provided dual-mode devices and the terrestrial aspect of the network is “ancillary.” Seeing the demand for wireless Internet rising, satellite companies and their private equity backers flocked to the space, banking on the fact that the satellite companies owned a chunk of the airwaves that are so essential for providing mobile broadband service.
However, mobile broadband via satellite is a slow, clunky affair that requires large, temperamental devices and delivers speeds of less than 1 Mbps down. Broad adoption, which is what LightSquared will need, requires terrestrial networks to deliver faster service and modern devices on that network that appeal to consumers. Boulben notes that LightSquared will be able to offer partners three options for coverage: satellite-only, terrestrial-only or a combination of the two.
All told, LightSquared has access to 59 MHz of spectrum through its own holdings, a lease agreement with Inmarsat and some other purchases. But only 13 MHz of the 59 MHz of that spectrum will be available for terrestrial-only services. That’s not a large amount for what will likely be the most popular type of service that LightSquared’s reseller partners will want. Boulben says the company plans to deploy its spectrum for LTE in 5×5 MHz chunks (with 5 MHz allocated to the downlink and 5 to the uplink). The breakdown for the spectrum holdings are 46MHz in the so-called L band at 1.6 Ghz, 8 MHz at 1.4 GHz band and 5 MHz at the 1.6 GHz block that’s not in the L-band. Those last two are where the terrestrial-only networks could be deployed.
The issue with the combined network boils down to the device and network speeds. Having a dual-mode device has historically meant big compromises on style and battery life. Plus, satellites can’t offer fast speeds like the LTE network could. Beurbon said that new chips inside devices, to be detailed later this year, make the combined satellite and terrestrial devices less clunky. He also says that a new, larger satellite SkyTerra is launching will help reduce the need for big antennas and battery-draining radios inside handsets or broadband dongles.
The money side of things
The release out today from LightSquared notes that the company has so far received $2.9 billion in assets from Harbinger Capital Partners to make its LTE network a reality and says that it has raised up to $1.75 billion in debt and equity. However, it hasn’t raised the full $1.75 billion yet — merely an initial round. Boulben did not disclose the investors, nor the amount raised so far but said the round was oversubscribed. Given the hype about the looming spectrum shortage and the complexities of spectrum rules and network deployments, I’m not surprised that LightSquared could find investors who see only the increase and demand, but may not understand all of the complexities associated with the spectrum or the requirements of a cellular network. But the key is whether or not LightSquared can get its network operating and generating revenue in time to repay them and also pay NSN. LightSquared did not disclose when it’s initial debt repayment would be due.
The history of satellite companies is littered with bankruptcies and near-bankruptcies, and financing the costs of building out a terrestrial and satellite network aren’t trivial. The debt and equity raised will fund both NSN’s contract as well as the satellite requirements. So while this is an essential first step for LightSquared, the news today is somewhat less exciting than it appears if we’re keeping our eye on the goal of building a nationwide wholesale LTE network.
We have a rebranding of an existing company with a few new faces on the executive team, notably a CEO from Orange and an SVP for engineering and operations from Clearwire, an undisclosed amount of new money into a venture that has already swallowed billions and a contract with a reputable vendor to build out an LTE network at a cost of $7 billion. At this point, the Nokia Siemens Networks adds the most credibility to this whole effort. I hope it gets paid.
Related GigaOM Pro content (sub req’d):
Everybody Hertz: The Looming Spectrum Crisis
Condé promoted Bob Sauerberg, former head of consumer marketing (read: circulation) to its presidency. Bob is one of the good guys of Condé Nast (I don’t mean to damn him with faint praise there … sorry, couldn’t resist); he’s smart, mature, experienced. (I worked with him a good deal when I was at Advance’s parent company and he was at Fairchild; I should add that none of what I’m saying here comes from the slightest contemporary knowledge of the company; haven’t been in the cafeteria for many months.) Bob knows management and consumer marketing. The age of the ad sales guy is over because the age of the ad is over.
The problem is going to be that there is only more competition in content and so trying to suddenly charge more flies in the face of basic economics. The absurdity of the strategy struck me yesterday as Amazon tried to sell me a subscription to Time for 28.8 cents an issue while Time is trying to sell its iPad issues for $4.99 and I see no reason to buy either. In what world do these economics make sense? In their dreams.
“I want to collect income from the consumer,” Townsend told The Times earlier. “An annual magazine subscription may be something like anywhere bet $12 and $24. So I’m currently locked into a model that says I get a buck or two a month. How about I get a buck for a click?”
Dream on.
They’re not wrong that they need to get money from consumers but they’re not going to get it for content. Sorry guys. But as Google schooled the newspaper industry (I’ll substitute appropriate words):
The large profit margins enjoyed in the past were built on an artificial scarcity: Limited choice for advertisers as well as readers. With the Internet, that scarcity has been taken away and replaced by abundance. No will be able to restore revenues to what they were before the emergence of online . It is not a question of analog dollars versus digital dimes, but rather a realistic assessment of how to make money in a world of abundant competitors and consumer choice.
Instead, I suggest they have to get new revenue through commerce — through selling the things they once advertised now that advertisers are deserting them to sell direct. Problem is, that’s hard, as Condé knows best from its experience with Style.com, which started as an attempt to create a high-end store (I worked there then). They created it in partnership with a retailer and the retailer bagged the effort when times got tough in the first bubble; it then became another ad-supported site. But the strategy wasn’t wrong. Problem is, there is no retail expertise in the company.
More recently, Condé should have bought Net-a-Porter but instead luxury conglomerate Richemont snarfed it up. (Disclosure: I spoke at Richemont’s corporate retreat recently.) Condé should buy Gilt to establish new skills, a new relationship with customers, and new revenue. Its content then becomes just added value: the Cinnabon’s in the mall.
A media company going into retail and selling in areas held by former advertisers has precedent: Media News’ Salt Lake City paper became a real estate broker and undersold the entire business in town. The Telegraph, as I like to point out, sells everything from hangers to wine to betting to its readers.
But if Condé and other media companies are going into retail, they need entirely new skills of merchandising and sales, an entirely new financial structure to cope with inventory costs and tight margins, the ability to cope with entirely new competitors and suppliers (that is, former advertisers — but, worse, Amazon), and an entirely new efficiency (forget the cafeteria; they’d be lucky to have a Wal-Mart lunch room with vending machines as a profit center).
They also have to defeat a calcified, entitled culture. For that, I’d suggest they buy Gawker Media to get the incredibly popular competitor Jezebel and to infuse the company with a new culture. Make Nick Denton editorial director and COO and then watch the fun.
I doubt they heard any of this from KcKinsey because in the few encounters I’ve had with them they remix known models rather than invent new ones, which is what is called for here. I’ll bet they proposed cutting some costs (done) and remixing revenue (started) when what’s really needed is a complete restrategizing.
Or maybe I”m wrong. Maybe 4 Times Square will become the world’s lushest mall, with one helluva food court.
Nevermind my advice. The moral of this story remains that advertising is next to fall into the black hole (as a Time Inc. president once dubbed this damned internet thing). Welcome to Bob Garfield’s Chaos Scenario.
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