Tuesday, September 21, 2010

foreclosure list












Several states and the District of Columbia are going to the polls for state primaries on Tuesday. Will Tea Partiers upset establishment picks in Delaware and New Hampshire? Will Mayor Adrian Fenty lose in Washington D.C.? The Daily Beast on what to watch.


Delaware


Much of what would help Rep. Mike Castle win Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in a general election is what’s sinking him in the Republican primary: He’s an establishment politician who’s held elected office in Delaware for the past 30 years as a pro-choice, pro-gay moderate—a RINO, or Republican In Name Only, according to some conservatives. His Tea Party-backed opponent, Christine O’Donnell, is gaining on him, pulling ahead of Castle in the latest Public Policy Polling survey.  O’Donnell also earned the endorsement of Sarah Palin, who recorded robocalls on her behalf. O’Donnell has a long list of past financial problems, including an IRS lien and a near-foreclosure, as well as a history of losing elections. If O’Donnell triumphs Tuesday night, the Republicans’ chance of winning Biden’s old seat—and of retaking the Senate—drops significantly. 





Political signs line a walkway in Washington, D.C. on September 18, 2010. (Photo: Tom Williams / Roll Call via Getty Images)

New Hampshire


The frontrunner, and establishment pick, in New Hampshire’s Republican primary for the Senate seat of Judd Gregg is Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who has even been dubbed a “mamma grizzly” by Sarah Palin this year. But the Tea Party favors Ovide Lamontagne, a businessman who has earned the endorsement of the Union Leader, the state’s influential newspaper. Another businessman, Bill Binnie, has dumped a ton of his own cash into the race, billing himself as a fiscal conservative with moderate social views. If Ayotte secures the nomination—and she’s still polling ahead by a few points—Republicans have a solid chance of keeping a seat they’ve held on to for three decades. But Lamontagne has the momentum, pulling within four points, even though he trails in polls against the Democratic nominee, Paul Hodes.


Washington, D.C.


• Benjy Sarlin: How the GOP Could Lose the Tea Party

• John Avlon: The Tea Party's Northern Insurgency

• Samuel P. Jacobs: Frontrunner Follies
Mayor Adrian Fenty, a determined reformer who swept into office in a landslide in 2006, has quickly found himself an underdog in his bid for reelection. Up against D.C. Council Chairman Vincent Gray, the most recently available poll of the race puts Gray 17 points ahead among likely voters, with a large edge among the black voters that handed Fenty the mayor’s office in the first place. Though the incumbent mayor has delivered on many of the tough reforms he promised in his initial campaign, such as restructuring the public-school system, he has faced a backlash for not maintaining his ties to the community. Gray, now the frontrunner, has also attacked Fenty on ethics charges, claiming he has funneled millions in taxpayer money to his “frat brothers” and “cronies.”


New York


Longtime New York Republican pol Rick Lazio is struggling in the Republican gubernatorial primary against Carl Paladino, whom The Daily Beast’s John Avlon describes as a “Tea Party hypocrite”—the kind who preaches fiscal conservatism yet holds $85.3 million in state government contracts. Paladino “began his self-funded campaign with the exposure of a series of emails that manages to include racism (African tribal dances described as Obama inauguration festivities) and bestiality (sex with horses, if you must know) and somehow went down from there.” A Siena poll found Lazio up by a single point last week, even though as late as early July, Lazio was ahead by 20 points. 










Housing & jobs go together like a horse & carriage; you can't have one without the other.

Banks are sitting on plenty of homes, evicting people and letting foreclosed properties rot.

Meanwhile, Americans are living in tent cities!

We must increase consumer confidence and spending - consumer demand is the backbone of our economy,

Both the housing & unemployment crisis can be easily, quickly & fairly resolved - without a government bailout & the taxpayer spending a dime!

How about giving all Americans making less than $250,000yr the option to withdraw retirement savings TAX FREE if they pay CASH for a primary or second home or rent to a foreclosure victim? They must keep the home for at least 3 years or pay the taxes.

This would greatly reduce the foreclosure blight, stop home prices from declining, put cash in the economy, increase consumer confidence and spending, and provide much needed employment as well as state and local real estate taxes. Taxes paid by the newly hired would probably make up for the tax incentive.

The result: NO NEW DEBT & AMERICAN JOBS!

BillBoard - Blogs - The Buffalo <b>News</b>

The Buffalo News updated every day with news from Buffalo, New York. Links to national and business news, entertainment listings, recipes, sports teams, classified ads, death notices.

Bad <b>News</b> for Feingold

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them." -- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director "Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the ...

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs <b>News</b> 9/21 - Arrowhead Pride

Good morning Chiefs fans! Another serving of Kansas City Chiefs news waits below. I have mixed thoughts after watching most of last night's game. The 49ers looked good, but shot themselves in the foot a few times. I'm hoping Arrowhead ...


robert shumake

BillBoard - Blogs - The Buffalo <b>News</b>

The Buffalo News updated every day with news from Buffalo, New York. Links to national and business news, entertainment listings, recipes, sports teams, classified ads, death notices.

Bad <b>News</b> for Feingold

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them." -- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director "Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the ...

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs <b>News</b> 9/21 - Arrowhead Pride

Good morning Chiefs fans! Another serving of Kansas City Chiefs news waits below. I have mixed thoughts after watching most of last night's game. The 49ers looked good, but shot themselves in the foot a few times. I'm hoping Arrowhead ...













Several states and the District of Columbia are going to the polls for state primaries on Tuesday. Will Tea Partiers upset establishment picks in Delaware and New Hampshire? Will Mayor Adrian Fenty lose in Washington D.C.? The Daily Beast on what to watch.


Delaware


Much of what would help Rep. Mike Castle win Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in a general election is what’s sinking him in the Republican primary: He’s an establishment politician who’s held elected office in Delaware for the past 30 years as a pro-choice, pro-gay moderate—a RINO, or Republican In Name Only, according to some conservatives. His Tea Party-backed opponent, Christine O’Donnell, is gaining on him, pulling ahead of Castle in the latest Public Policy Polling survey.  O’Donnell also earned the endorsement of Sarah Palin, who recorded robocalls on her behalf. O’Donnell has a long list of past financial problems, including an IRS lien and a near-foreclosure, as well as a history of losing elections. If O’Donnell triumphs Tuesday night, the Republicans’ chance of winning Biden’s old seat—and of retaking the Senate—drops significantly. 





Political signs line a walkway in Washington, D.C. on September 18, 2010. (Photo: Tom Williams / Roll Call via Getty Images)

New Hampshire


The frontrunner, and establishment pick, in New Hampshire’s Republican primary for the Senate seat of Judd Gregg is Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who has even been dubbed a “mamma grizzly” by Sarah Palin this year. But the Tea Party favors Ovide Lamontagne, a businessman who has earned the endorsement of the Union Leader, the state’s influential newspaper. Another businessman, Bill Binnie, has dumped a ton of his own cash into the race, billing himself as a fiscal conservative with moderate social views. If Ayotte secures the nomination—and she’s still polling ahead by a few points—Republicans have a solid chance of keeping a seat they’ve held on to for three decades. But Lamontagne has the momentum, pulling within four points, even though he trails in polls against the Democratic nominee, Paul Hodes.


Washington, D.C.


• Benjy Sarlin: How the GOP Could Lose the Tea Party

• John Avlon: The Tea Party's Northern Insurgency

• Samuel P. Jacobs: Frontrunner Follies
Mayor Adrian Fenty, a determined reformer who swept into office in a landslide in 2006, has quickly found himself an underdog in his bid for reelection. Up against D.C. Council Chairman Vincent Gray, the most recently available poll of the race puts Gray 17 points ahead among likely voters, with a large edge among the black voters that handed Fenty the mayor’s office in the first place. Though the incumbent mayor has delivered on many of the tough reforms he promised in his initial campaign, such as restructuring the public-school system, he has faced a backlash for not maintaining his ties to the community. Gray, now the frontrunner, has also attacked Fenty on ethics charges, claiming he has funneled millions in taxpayer money to his “frat brothers” and “cronies.”


New York


Longtime New York Republican pol Rick Lazio is struggling in the Republican gubernatorial primary against Carl Paladino, whom The Daily Beast’s John Avlon describes as a “Tea Party hypocrite”—the kind who preaches fiscal conservatism yet holds $85.3 million in state government contracts. Paladino “began his self-funded campaign with the exposure of a series of emails that manages to include racism (African tribal dances described as Obama inauguration festivities) and bestiality (sex with horses, if you must know) and somehow went down from there.” A Siena poll found Lazio up by a single point last week, even though as late as early July, Lazio was ahead by 20 points. 










Housing & jobs go together like a horse & carriage; you can't have one without the other.

Banks are sitting on plenty of homes, evicting people and letting foreclosed properties rot.

Meanwhile, Americans are living in tent cities!

We must increase consumer confidence and spending - consumer demand is the backbone of our economy,

Both the housing & unemployment crisis can be easily, quickly & fairly resolved - without a government bailout & the taxpayer spending a dime!

How about giving all Americans making less than $250,000yr the option to withdraw retirement savings TAX FREE if they pay CASH for a primary or second home or rent to a foreclosure victim? They must keep the home for at least 3 years or pay the taxes.

This would greatly reduce the foreclosure blight, stop home prices from declining, put cash in the economy, increase consumer confidence and spending, and provide much needed employment as well as state and local real estate taxes. Taxes paid by the newly hired would probably make up for the tax incentive.

The result: NO NEW DEBT & AMERICAN JOBS!

Just Listed Foreclosure In Clarendon, Columbus County by Broker Shawn


robert shumake

BillBoard - Blogs - The Buffalo <b>News</b>

The Buffalo News updated every day with news from Buffalo, New York. Links to national and business news, entertainment listings, recipes, sports teams, classified ads, death notices.

Bad <b>News</b> for Feingold

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them." -- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director "Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the ...

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs <b>News</b> 9/21 - Arrowhead Pride

Good morning Chiefs fans! Another serving of Kansas City Chiefs news waits below. I have mixed thoughts after watching most of last night's game. The 49ers looked good, but shot themselves in the foot a few times. I'm hoping Arrowhead ...


robert shumake

BillBoard - Blogs - The Buffalo <b>News</b>

The Buffalo News updated every day with news from Buffalo, New York. Links to national and business news, entertainment listings, recipes, sports teams, classified ads, death notices.

Bad <b>News</b> for Feingold

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them." -- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director "Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the ...

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs <b>News</b> 9/21 - Arrowhead Pride

Good morning Chiefs fans! Another serving of Kansas City Chiefs news waits below. I have mixed thoughts after watching most of last night's game. The 49ers looked good, but shot themselves in the foot a few times. I'm hoping Arrowhead ...

















Saturday, September 18, 2010

managing your personal finances





Are you a fan of the GTD personal productivity system? Well if you like "Getting Things Done," here's GFD, Getting Finances Done, which shows you how to map David Allen's same principals to managing your personal finance and achieving your financial goals.



Applying GTD principles to your personal finances - Part 1 [Getting Finances Done]










Are you a fan of the GTD personal productivity system? Well if you like "Getting Things Done," here's GFD, Getting Finances Done, which shows you how to map David Allen's same principals to managing your personal finance and achieving your financial goals.



Applying GTD principles to your personal finances - Part 1 [Getting Finances Done]







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Sarah Palin Calls On Fox <b>News</b> To Help Republicans Campaign For <b>...</b>

In a speech at the Iowa Republican Party's Reagan Dinner fundraiser on Friday, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin called on the GOP to come together and support the party's nominees in November.

Denver Broncos <b>News</b> - Horse Tracks - 9/18/10 - Mile High Report

Your Daily Cup of Orange and Blue Coffee....Horse Tracks.

Canucks <b>News</b> On Day 1 Of Training Camp - Nucks Misconduct

Hodgson speaks about Canucks relationship plus more.



Time Table 2 by corsin




































Tuesday, September 14, 2010

manage personal finances











Quicken Online users will be able to manually import certain account data into Mint.com by adding Quicken Online as an account in Mint. Quicken also encourages existing customers to export their Quicken Online data as a CSV file for backup purposes. All transaction and account data will be wiped from Intuit's servers beginning on August 29.



One group for whom this transition might be a challenge is the small business users of Quicken Online, who will no longer be able to access the Web component of Quicken's Home & Business product.



Since Mint.com is geared toward personal finance, it does not currently offer a way to differeniate between personal and business transactions. For that, business customers still looking to manage their finances online might want to consider alternatives like InDinero or Outright.



The desktop versions of Quicken's products will not be affected by the change.



















This post is from staff writer Sierra Black. Sierra writes about frugality, sustainable living, and getting her kids to eat kale at Childwild.com. This post is part of Book Week at Get Rich Slowly.


Since my twin victories of paying off our last credit card and funding a summer of travel, my husband has begun to show interest in personal finance.


It’s not that he wasn’t supportive of my efforts before — he just preferred to support them from a safe, ignorant distance. A distance from which I handed him an envelope of cash each week to do the grocery shopping, he didn’t ask too many questions, and somehow we were climbing out of debt. He was more than happy to adopt any frugal-living strategy I suggested, as long as he didn’t have to think about the Big Picture.


That system worked, but I longed for more active participation from him. Not only because I wanted us to share equally in the journey toward financial freedom — I do want that — but also for a selfish reason. I wanted him to participate because he’s better at this stuff than I am. He’s a whiz at spreadsheets. The man has a Ph.d in Physical Chemistry. You don’t get one of those without doing a few math problems.


Lately, I’ve been getting my wish. My husband has been talking with a financial advisor at the university he works for, and having clear, honest conversations with me about our money.


This seemed like the perfect time for me to read Mary Hunt’s How to Debt-Proof Your Marriage.


Relationship first

Hunt’s book covers the basics of personal finance and debt destruction, with a special focus on doing it as a couple. Before she even begins talking about financial management, Hunt talks about strengthening the foundations of your marriage. You can’t have financial harmony without emotional intimacy, she says.


I couldn’t agree more. It’s clear in my own marriage that spending time relaxing together on vacation helped my husband and me both chill out and have better conversations during our family finance meetings too.


Hunt and I part ways in the chapters about how to achieve that emotional intimacy, though. She bases her prescription for marital bliss on traditional gender roles. She includes chapters for each sex on how to make deposits in the other’s Love Bank — a metaphorical bank of goodwill made of small, loving gestures.


The Love Bank is an adorable idea, one I’m tempted to put into practice here in my own home. I’m pretty sure I won’t be making my deposits to my husband’s Love Bank by biting my tongue when I disagree with him, though. Likewise, I don’t expect him to express his love for me by bringing me flowers and handling all the tough decisions for me like the natural leader of our family should.


Hunt is a generation (or two) older than I am, and what works for her marriage is so foreign to my young, feminist mind that it was actually a little hard to read. But leaving aside the details of how you get to an intimate marriage, though, she and I agree wholeheartedly that it’s important to get your emotional needs met before you can effectively work together with your spouse to manage your finances.


Money second

The personal-finance half of the book will be familiar to most GRS readers. Hunt advocates an approach similar to Your Money or Your Life and Dave Ramsey’s Total Money Makeover, one that begins with calculating your net worth and tracking your expenses. From there, she covers the basics of setting up an emergency fund, creating a spending plan, and starting a debt snowball (though she uses different terms for these steps).


Like her ideal of a healthy relationship, Hunt’s financial advice seems a little dated in places. A lot of it has to do with how to organize your three-ring binders, or how to painstakingly accomplish by-hand calculations that Mint can do for you in a few minutes. If you’re a devotee of the pen-and-paper approach, though, her chapters on how to track and plan your spending are rock solid and detailed enough to easily follow.


The one thing in this book that made me want to put it down, run to my office, and implement it on the spot was, in fact, her filing system. Hunt takes a few pages to go over exactly what personal records you should be keeping, and outlines an elegant effective way to organize them. I spent an hour tearing apart my filing cabinet yesterday as soon as I read those pages. I may not want my marriage to look much like hers, but I’m delighted to have made over my filing cabinet in Mary Hunt’s image.


Different views

There are a few areas where Mary’s financial advice deviates from the usual Get Rich Slowly formula. One is the matter of the debt snowball. She encourages readers to start saving 10% of their income towards an emergency fund immediately, while still paying the minimums on their credit cards. Only after saving up a fully funded six-month emergency fund would Hunt advise you to roll those savings into your credit card payments.


Given the relative interest rates on credit cards and savings accounts, this approach will almost certainly cost you money. If it works for you psychologically, though, by all means pursue it. No matter what order you do them in, the key steps of tracking your spending, creating an emergency fund, and snowballing your debt payments will lead you to financial security.


Another place where she breaks with conventional wisdom is in her savings and spending ratios. GRS readers are familiar with the Balanced Money Formula that encourages us to use 50% of our money for living expenses, 30% for fun and 20% for savings. Hunt advises 10% for giving, 10% for saving and 80% for spending.


The order of those percentages is vital to her. A devout Christian, Hunt feels that all the money that comes into your life is a blessing from God, and promptly giving 10% of it back to God shows you can be trusted with this blessing, and more of it will come your way.


I’m not a Christian, but I admire Mary’s faith and devotion to charitable giving. It’s a goal of mine to give 10% of my income. I’ve written about that here before, and readers made a persuasive case for waiting until my debts were paid before giving so much away. For now, I give a modest amount and look forward to giving more in the future.


I think that for Hunt, the psychological benefits of giving 10% and saving 10% before you make any spending decisions at all outweigh the financial benefits of paying off your debts as fast as possible and then beginning to accumulate and donate wealth.


It’s an interesting approach, and one that might work for a lot of people. Particularly if you’re a devoted Christian and looking for a personal-finance book that reflects your values, you’ll find a lot of good in How to Debt-Proof Your Marriage. If you’re looking for a book that’s totally focused on financial savvy and relationship skills, though, this might not be your best bet.










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autosport.com - F1 <b>News</b>: Raikkonen bids for 2011 Renault seat

Kimi Raikkonen is making a fresh bid to return to Formula 1 next year after approaching the Renault team for a drive in 2011, AUTOSPORT can reveal.

Justice Stephen Breyer: Is Burning Koran &#39;Shouting Fire In A <b>...</b>

Last week we saw a Florida Pastor – with 30 members in his church – threaten to burn Korans which lead to riots and killings in Afghanistan. We also saw Democrats and Republicans alike assume that Pastor Jones had a... ABC News' George ...

Pew: Online <b>News</b> Use Growing But Traditional Methods Hanging In <b>...</b>

Print newspapers and radio are still slipping as sources but U.S. adults are spending more time with news these days when the internet and traditional platforms are combined. The amount of time spent on traditional platforms hasn't ...



MABUHAY ALLIANCE HOST THE 6TH ANNUAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE by mabuhayalliance


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autosport.com - F1 <b>News</b>: Raikkonen bids for 2011 Renault seat

Kimi Raikkonen is making a fresh bid to return to Formula 1 next year after approaching the Renault team for a drive in 2011, AUTOSPORT can reveal.

Justice Stephen Breyer: Is Burning Koran &#39;Shouting Fire In A <b>...</b>

Last week we saw a Florida Pastor – with 30 members in his church – threaten to burn Korans which lead to riots and killings in Afghanistan. We also saw Democrats and Republicans alike assume that Pastor Jones had a... ABC News' George ...

Pew: Online <b>News</b> Use Growing But Traditional Methods Hanging In <b>...</b>

Print newspapers and radio are still slipping as sources but U.S. adults are spending more time with news these days when the internet and traditional platforms are combined. The amount of time spent on traditional platforms hasn't ...


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MABUHAY ALLIANCE HOST THE 6TH ANNUAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE by mabuhayalliance































Sunday, September 12, 2010

Making Money With Youtube

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HK Local Practices Being Built at US Firms

The growing importance of Hong Kong as not only a gateway to China and Southeast Asia, but also as a regional financial center in its own right, has compelled many foreign firms to add a Hong Kong local practice. For the last two years, Hong Kong has been the world’s leading IPO center (surpassing New York and London) and clients are increasingly seeking one firm to handle both the US and Hong Kong side of the IPO. Even General Motors was reported to have seriously considered a Hong Kong listing along with its planned NYSE/Toronto listings, only to drop the idea in part because of Hong Kong’s more restrictive listing requirements. Hong Kong is already the preferred market for international share offerings by China’s behemoth state-owned enterprises, which previously might have considered listing in Europe or the US.

Not all US firms will see an immediate need to acquire a Hong Kong practice as long as they continue to land major deals because of the participation of their US clients (mainly US-based financial institutions) in Asia-based transactions. Yet, as long as Hong Kong continues to be the world’s IPO leader and Asia continues its financial dominance, there will be pressure on foreign firms to add a Hong Kong arm to their practice.

Furthermore, a US firm adding a Hong Kong practice to an already strong US law practice is a throwing down of the gauntlet, so to speak – a signal to the more-established Magic Circle firms that they are committed to Asia and intend to be “all in” as a major regional player. In response, some British firms in Hong Kong have recently invested heavily in expanding their already strong US practice in Hong Kong, with Allen & Overy being a perfect example.id="more-34640">

Increased Practice Complexity

Transactional work will remain many firms’ bread and butter in Asia. As is clear from the associate hiring trends, discussed below, the traditional transactional practices remain where the bulk of the hiring is occurring. But there is a growing belief among international firms that building a more full service offering, including white collar and regulatory compliance, as well as traditional litigation capability in Asia, is crucial to solidifying their long-term presence in the region. In addition to Gibson Dunn’s move to hire Kelly Austin, GE’s regional compliance chief, earlier this summer, Latham & Watkins launched a Hong Kong litigation practice, Skadden Arps last year launched an arbitration practice in Hong Kong, and top Australian firm Mallesons Stephen Jacques recruited a senior Clifford Chance litigation partner to its Hong Kong office. Last year Winston & Strawn also made a major move in the litigation practice, hiring partner David Hall-Jones from Heller Ehrman. Due to the local nature of litigation practices, opportunities for non-Hong Kong qualified litigators in Hong Kong are rare, but the trend is nevertheless a relevant indicator of general law firm strategy.

Hiring, Salaries and Popular Practices

Asian offices of foreign firms have historically been drawn to the region to take advantage of its importance as a regional financial center (especially in the case of Hong Kong) and the increased volume of inbound/outbound M&A/FDI as well as intra-Asia transactions. While certain regions might have a slightly shifted focus – for example, there is more project finance and energy work out of Singapore, more FDI work out of mainland China, and more capital markets work out of Hong Kong – the backbone of an Asia practice for a foreign law firm practicing in Asia is traditionally transactions-focused. One of the best indications of work flow has traditionally been the lateral associate hiring demand and compensation trends in law firms.

Most Desired Skill Sets for Associates

The most sought-after associates in Asia are those with strong capital markets and M&A skills. Commonwealth-qualified associates with capital markets, project finance, fund formation, acquisition finance, general corporate, real estate and even litigation skill sets can readily find open positions in Asia, whereas US-qualified associates who practice something other than capital markets or M&A might find it difficult to land in a US practice of an Asia firm.

The reason for this discrepancy is twofold: (1) the demand for a US-specific skill set is most often found in capital markets offerings where Asia-based issuers seek to avail themselves of US capital without triggering SEC registration requirements and (2) many transaction documents are governed by the laws of Hong Kong or England & Wales, not the laws of New York or another state in the United States, thus the demand for Commonwealth-qualified and Hong Kong-qualified lawyers is much higher in non-capital markets practice groups.

Language Skills

Relevant Asian language skills, particularly Mandarin Chinese, are almost a necessity for practicing within the region. It is currently very difficult to crack the legal markets in mainland China without Mandarin fluency, whereas as recently as 2008 it was not uncommon for English-only speakers to land at some top US firms in the mainland. Today, native speakers of Mandarin are much preferred to fluent Mandarin speakers with a different mother tongue. Many firms have grown in China in recent years with heavy-hitting transactional partners who do not speak Mandarin, but these partners desperately need associate assistance from those who do speak excellent Mandarin and can read Chinese. Thus, while Mandarin is arguably unnecessary for many transactions out of Hong Kong (for example, transactions with entities based in India or Southeast Asia), many employers are making Mandarin fluency a “preferred” criterion.

Further, even when US transactional practices in Hong Kong and China have an opening where Mandarin fluency is not a strong preference, the high number of very qualified US associate candidates on the market today with Mandarin skills makes it difficult for non Mandarin speaking candidates to get noticed at many firms. There are exceptions, where some groups in Hong Kong will make hires of English-only candidates and put no significant degree of importance on Mandarin skills, but firms operating that way are currently a small minority.

Due to the restrictive attorney licensing regime in Korea, US and UK firms remain unable to open offices there. However, UK firms expect to be in Seoul soon, as ratification of the recently agreed EU – Korea Fair Trade Agreement nears. It is uncertain when the US will ratify a fair trade agreement with Korea.

Hong Kong is the headquarters for most of the top international Korea practices, and so Korean language skills are also in demand in Hong Kong, especially with Korean biglaw associates based in Hong Kong typically spending a lot of time on the ground in Korea. The demand for Korean speakers waxes and wanes in accordance with the volume of work at the Korean practices in Hong Kong, as well as the volume of Korea-related work coming to Hong Kong firms without a Korea practice group.

Cantonese language skills are rarely sought after, and few foreign firms have ever, in our experience, sought out Cantonese skills among their foreign attorneys specifically.

In Japan, the biglaw lateral market has not been as hot as in other parts of Asia the past couple of years, due to the recent recession in Japan and also due to Japan relatively well developed market for foreign firms, relative to China. Things have picked up this year and firms are hiring, but Japanese language skills are now a requirement far more often than before the global recession. Firms seeking US associates with Japanese fluency have a much harder time finding good candidates than those seeking Mandarin fluent US associates. Thus, it is an extremely competitive hiring market for the handful of Japanese fluent mid-level to senior US associates coming from top 20 international firms.

In Singapore, few international law firm employers will specify language skills, but occasionally many will ask for an attorney who is barred in multiple jurisdictions – often one Western jurisdiction (New York or England & Wales) as well as India or one Southeast Asian jurisdiction. Because the environment (and client base) in Singapore is so multicultural, it is not unusual for hiring inquiries to include culture-specific “preferred” criteria. A firm which needs to make a hire for its India capital markets practice will often choose an Indian national even though the job does not require any Indian-specific language skills or legal qualification.

Asia’s “Biglaw” Lateral Market Has Become Much More Competitive Recently

In 2006 and 2007, US and UK law firms in Asia were hiring at the same pace as today, if not more quickly, but at the time there was a significant shortage of qualified US associate candidates on the market. Today, there are many more qualified US associates on the market than there are positions available and thus firms do not have to make very quick hiring decisions like they did a few years ago. There are several main reasons for this. First, the relatively stagnant economies in the US and EU since 2008 have caused associates with Asian backgrounds to consider Hong Kong and other Asia markets earlier than they had planned or to consider them as alternatives to New York or London for their long-term careers when previously they had intended to remain in the West indefinitely. Second, relatively early moves by young associates with Asian background during the hiring boom of ’06 through early ‘08, generally with positive results in terms of deal-flow and experience, have set a precedent. US associates with Asian background, especially Chinese, are today more confident than ever that they can have the same or better long-term career opportunities, in biglaw and in-house, in Asia as they can have in New York, London and other major Western markets. Other associates with similar backgrounds are considering such moves earlier as well. Third, although the “biglaw” lateral market in Asia is very competitive, it is still easier for an associate with Chinese background from New York or other major Western markets to lateral to a peer firm in Hong Kong or China today than it is for them to make a similar lateral move within their current markets.

Salaries and Expat Packages

One constant in legal hiring is this: law firms who want to be perceived as “top” law firms will seek to hire the best possible candidate of all those they are able to interview for any given position. If the number of possible interviewees increases, as it did in the past year as hiring of associates began anew in Asia, the standards applied to applicants will be dialed up as necessary to make the decision regarding whom to hire difficult and competitive. Since this is the case, there is rarely an opportunity to lower salaries and benefits for firms that wish to be competitive. The 2008-2009 downturn was no exception. The few firms able to hire at all in Asia then (mostly top 20 US firms and UK magic circle firms) wanted only to consider the very best candidates on the market. These firms had some of the highest salaries and expat packages and were competing for the top candidates coming from top five New York firms, each of whom expected those expat packages to continue. Further, these firms, already understaffed in some cases (mostly in their capital markets groups in Hong Kong and China), could not afford to lose their own US associates.

As a result, most top US and UK firms continue to offer expat packages in Asia. Of the firms that offer expat packages in Hong Kong, the range offered for US-qualified associates has been anywhere from US$30,000/year to US$90,000/year, with what is considered “competitive” expat packages being at US$60,000/year and above. Expat packages are not quite as prevalent in mainland China, but are offered there by the majority of US and UK firms, as well as all of the firms that pay competitive packages in Hong Kong. “Competitive” in the mainland is $45,000 and above and can be as high as $80,000. Expat packages are at the moment almost nonexistent in Singapore, but we expect that to change in the future. In Tokyo, the “competitive” range is $90,000 all the way up to $130,000. Keep in mind that all of the numbers mentioned above are for associates with no children, as some (but not all) firms do add to their expat package significantly for associates with children, especially school-aged children.

US associates will typically receive expat / COLA allowances in Asia regardless of their country of citizenship and whether they are liable for US federal income taxes. Some firms have tax equalization policies in Hong Kong and Singapore, but the trend for several years has been to do away with tax equalization in order to be more competitive in recruiting native Chinese and other top associates who are not US citizens or residents.

One of the most striking trends in 2010 regarding salary packages has been a shift toward paying New York-level base salaries to non-US qualified associates in Hong Kong. Traditionally, US-qualified associates have been paid about 20-30% more than their Commonwealth-qualified counterparts, and have gotten a much larger expat / COLA package as well. While an Australian-qualified associate might see a US$20,000/year expat package, her New York-qualified counterpart at the same firm could receive a US$65,000/year expat package, for example. Typically HK qualified associates have not received any expat / COLA package. These days, when a Hong Kong qualified junior to mid-level associate comes to us wanting to leave his or her current firm for another firm in Hong Kong, compensation considerations are usually a motivating factor. Of course, it is easier for a US firm building a new HK corporate practice to offer NYC top market base salaries to their few new HK qualified associate hires than it is for a well established and large HK practice to raise the salaries of their many HK practice associates.

As a result of rising expat packages, some mid-tier firms have begun specifying that they want to hire only non-US citizens for their open positions in order to save some portion of the expected expatriate compensation bonus. In view of the current trend to pay expat packages to even Commonwealth-qualified associates at many firms, this tactic seems to be losing its potency to reduce costs. Increasingly, the most qualified associates are all being tempted by potential expatriate benefits regardless of their country of origin.

While there was little change in expat allowances among the most highly regarded firms in Hong Kong during the global recession and hiring freezes, many among the less competitive firms dramatically lowered their allowances during ’09 and early ‘10, in many cases erroneously assuming that the top of the market were dramatically lowering theirs. Some of the firms that tried this were highly ranked US and UK firms. That trend (fortunately for associates) has reversed recently, with most firms that lowered their expat allowances now bringing those allowances back up to, and in some cases surpassing, the 2007 and 2008 levels.

Gaining Value from and Keeping Lateral Hires

In addition to attracting lateral hires through competitive salaries and benefits, firms know that they need to manage their talent so as to gain as much value as possible from their work over as long a period as possible. Whereas established New York and London offices of international firms typically have the size and deal flow predictability to support a full-fledged training program, complete with “mentorship,” “career development” partners, and the like, many Asia offices of law firms are only just beginning to acquire some of these structures. It is more difficult, therefore, for associates to obtain the necessary training. Associates in smaller overseas offices will have to rely on their supervising partner to play a strong mentoring role. Personality fit and partners’ desire and ability to train / mentor associates can thus be a bigger factor to associate retention in overseas offices than it is in large US or London home offices.

Corporate associates at US and UK firms in Asia usually move for one or more of the following reasons: a) compensation (usually having to do with expat / COLA allowances) concerns; b) desire for a more diverse corporate practice (usually due to more cap markets work than they expected; c) personality fit issue with supervising partner; d) concerns about long-term career advancement and security at current firm; e) a desire for more responsibility (every biglaw associate in Asia will know a number of same class year associates in the market that have higher levels of responsibility, based on a particular associate and firm’s circumstances); and f) being in an understaffed group and thus being overworked.

During boom times, the f) factor is the most prevalent reason for associate moves. Associate hires in US and UK based firms in Asia can be much more strategic and important than a typical associate hire in US and UK large home offices, for obvious reasons. Understaffing is a big problem in busy overseas offices, where one or two associates leaving a firm at the wrong time can cause the entire office to be overworked for months (replacement hires can take months, especially if the best candidates come from US or UK). Once a serious understaffing problem occurs, overworked associates will turn into unhappy associates and the firm involved will develop a reputation in the market (whether deserved or not) for being an unpleasant place to work.

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HK Local Practices Being Built at US Firms

The growing importance of Hong Kong as not only a gateway to China and Southeast Asia, but also as a regional financial center in its own right, has compelled many foreign firms to add a Hong Kong local practice. For the last two years, Hong Kong has been the world’s leading IPO center (surpassing New York and London) and clients are increasingly seeking one firm to handle both the US and Hong Kong side of the IPO. Even General Motors was reported to have seriously considered a Hong Kong listing along with its planned NYSE/Toronto listings, only to drop the idea in part because of Hong Kong’s more restrictive listing requirements. Hong Kong is already the preferred market for international share offerings by China’s behemoth state-owned enterprises, which previously might have considered listing in Europe or the US.

Not all US firms will see an immediate need to acquire a Hong Kong practice as long as they continue to land major deals because of the participation of their US clients (mainly US-based financial institutions) in Asia-based transactions. Yet, as long as Hong Kong continues to be the world’s IPO leader and Asia continues its financial dominance, there will be pressure on foreign firms to add a Hong Kong arm to their practice.

Furthermore, a US firm adding a Hong Kong practice to an already strong US law practice is a throwing down of the gauntlet, so to speak – a signal to the more-established Magic Circle firms that they are committed to Asia and intend to be “all in” as a major regional player. In response, some British firms in Hong Kong have recently invested heavily in expanding their already strong US practice in Hong Kong, with Allen & Overy being a perfect example.id="more-34640">

Increased Practice Complexity

Transactional work will remain many firms’ bread and butter in Asia. As is clear from the associate hiring trends, discussed below, the traditional transactional practices remain where the bulk of the hiring is occurring. But there is a growing belief among international firms that building a more full service offering, including white collar and regulatory compliance, as well as traditional litigation capability in Asia, is crucial to solidifying their long-term presence in the region. In addition to Gibson Dunn’s move to hire Kelly Austin, GE’s regional compliance chief, earlier this summer, Latham & Watkins launched a Hong Kong litigation practice, Skadden Arps last year launched an arbitration practice in Hong Kong, and top Australian firm Mallesons Stephen Jacques recruited a senior Clifford Chance litigation partner to its Hong Kong office. Last year Winston & Strawn also made a major move in the litigation practice, hiring partner David Hall-Jones from Heller Ehrman. Due to the local nature of litigation practices, opportunities for non-Hong Kong qualified litigators in Hong Kong are rare, but the trend is nevertheless a relevant indicator of general law firm strategy.

Hiring, Salaries and Popular Practices

Asian offices of foreign firms have historically been drawn to the region to take advantage of its importance as a regional financial center (especially in the case of Hong Kong) and the increased volume of inbound/outbound M&A/FDI as well as intra-Asia transactions. While certain regions might have a slightly shifted focus – for example, there is more project finance and energy work out of Singapore, more FDI work out of mainland China, and more capital markets work out of Hong Kong – the backbone of an Asia practice for a foreign law firm practicing in Asia is traditionally transactions-focused. One of the best indications of work flow has traditionally been the lateral associate hiring demand and compensation trends in law firms.

Most Desired Skill Sets for Associates

The most sought-after associates in Asia are those with strong capital markets and M&A skills. Commonwealth-qualified associates with capital markets, project finance, fund formation, acquisition finance, general corporate, real estate and even litigation skill sets can readily find open positions in Asia, whereas US-qualified associates who practice something other than capital markets or M&A might find it difficult to land in a US practice of an Asia firm.

The reason for this discrepancy is twofold: (1) the demand for a US-specific skill set is most often found in capital markets offerings where Asia-based issuers seek to avail themselves of US capital without triggering SEC registration requirements and (2) many transaction documents are governed by the laws of Hong Kong or England & Wales, not the laws of New York or another state in the United States, thus the demand for Commonwealth-qualified and Hong Kong-qualified lawyers is much higher in non-capital markets practice groups.

Language Skills

Relevant Asian language skills, particularly Mandarin Chinese, are almost a necessity for practicing within the region. It is currently very difficult to crack the legal markets in mainland China without Mandarin fluency, whereas as recently as 2008 it was not uncommon for English-only speakers to land at some top US firms in the mainland. Today, native speakers of Mandarin are much preferred to fluent Mandarin speakers with a different mother tongue. Many firms have grown in China in recent years with heavy-hitting transactional partners who do not speak Mandarin, but these partners desperately need associate assistance from those who do speak excellent Mandarin and can read Chinese. Thus, while Mandarin is arguably unnecessary for many transactions out of Hong Kong (for example, transactions with entities based in India or Southeast Asia), many employers are making Mandarin fluency a “preferred” criterion.

Further, even when US transactional practices in Hong Kong and China have an opening where Mandarin fluency is not a strong preference, the high number of very qualified US associate candidates on the market today with Mandarin skills makes it difficult for non Mandarin speaking candidates to get noticed at many firms. There are exceptions, where some groups in Hong Kong will make hires of English-only candidates and put no significant degree of importance on Mandarin skills, but firms operating that way are currently a small minority.

Due to the restrictive attorney licensing regime in Korea, US and UK firms remain unable to open offices there. However, UK firms expect to be in Seoul soon, as ratification of the recently agreed EU – Korea Fair Trade Agreement nears. It is uncertain when the US will ratify a fair trade agreement with Korea.

Hong Kong is the headquarters for most of the top international Korea practices, and so Korean language skills are also in demand in Hong Kong, especially with Korean biglaw associates based in Hong Kong typically spending a lot of time on the ground in Korea. The demand for Korean speakers waxes and wanes in accordance with the volume of work at the Korean practices in Hong Kong, as well as the volume of Korea-related work coming to Hong Kong firms without a Korea practice group.

Cantonese language skills are rarely sought after, and few foreign firms have ever, in our experience, sought out Cantonese skills among their foreign attorneys specifically.

In Japan, the biglaw lateral market has not been as hot as in other parts of Asia the past couple of years, due to the recent recession in Japan and also due to Japan relatively well developed market for foreign firms, relative to China. Things have picked up this year and firms are hiring, but Japanese language skills are now a requirement far more often than before the global recession. Firms seeking US associates with Japanese fluency have a much harder time finding good candidates than those seeking Mandarin fluent US associates. Thus, it is an extremely competitive hiring market for the handful of Japanese fluent mid-level to senior US associates coming from top 20 international firms.

In Singapore, few international law firm employers will specify language skills, but occasionally many will ask for an attorney who is barred in multiple jurisdictions – often one Western jurisdiction (New York or England & Wales) as well as India or one Southeast Asian jurisdiction. Because the environment (and client base) in Singapore is so multicultural, it is not unusual for hiring inquiries to include culture-specific “preferred” criteria. A firm which needs to make a hire for its India capital markets practice will often choose an Indian national even though the job does not require any Indian-specific language skills or legal qualification.

Asia’s “Biglaw” Lateral Market Has Become Much More Competitive Recently

In 2006 and 2007, US and UK law firms in Asia were hiring at the same pace as today, if not more quickly, but at the time there was a significant shortage of qualified US associate candidates on the market. Today, there are many more qualified US associates on the market than there are positions available and thus firms do not have to make very quick hiring decisions like they did a few years ago. There are several main reasons for this. First, the relatively stagnant economies in the US and EU since 2008 have caused associates with Asian backgrounds to consider Hong Kong and other Asia markets earlier than they had planned or to consider them as alternatives to New York or London for their long-term careers when previously they had intended to remain in the West indefinitely. Second, relatively early moves by young associates with Asian background during the hiring boom of ’06 through early ‘08, generally with positive results in terms of deal-flow and experience, have set a precedent. US associates with Asian background, especially Chinese, are today more confident than ever that they can have the same or better long-term career opportunities, in biglaw and in-house, in Asia as they can have in New York, London and other major Western markets. Other associates with similar backgrounds are considering such moves earlier as well. Third, although the “biglaw” lateral market in Asia is very competitive, it is still easier for an associate with Chinese background from New York or other major Western markets to lateral to a peer firm in Hong Kong or China today than it is for them to make a similar lateral move within their current markets.

Salaries and Expat Packages

One constant in legal hiring is this: law firms who want to be perceived as “top” law firms will seek to hire the best possible candidate of all those they are able to interview for any given position. If the number of possible interviewees increases, as it did in the past year as hiring of associates began anew in Asia, the standards applied to applicants will be dialed up as necessary to make the decision regarding whom to hire difficult and competitive. Since this is the case, there is rarely an opportunity to lower salaries and benefits for firms that wish to be competitive. The 2008-2009 downturn was no exception. The few firms able to hire at all in Asia then (mostly top 20 US firms and UK magic circle firms) wanted only to consider the very best candidates on the market. These firms had some of the highest salaries and expat packages and were competing for the top candidates coming from top five New York firms, each of whom expected those expat packages to continue. Further, these firms, already understaffed in some cases (mostly in their capital markets groups in Hong Kong and China), could not afford to lose their own US associates.

As a result, most top US and UK firms continue to offer expat packages in Asia. Of the firms that offer expat packages in Hong Kong, the range offered for US-qualified associates has been anywhere from US$30,000/year to US$90,000/year, with what is considered “competitive” expat packages being at US$60,000/year and above. Expat packages are not quite as prevalent in mainland China, but are offered there by the majority of US and UK firms, as well as all of the firms that pay competitive packages in Hong Kong. “Competitive” in the mainland is $45,000 and above and can be as high as $80,000. Expat packages are at the moment almost nonexistent in Singapore, but we expect that to change in the future. In Tokyo, the “competitive” range is $90,000 all the way up to $130,000. Keep in mind that all of the numbers mentioned above are for associates with no children, as some (but not all) firms do add to their expat package significantly for associates with children, especially school-aged children.

US associates will typically receive expat / COLA allowances in Asia regardless of their country of citizenship and whether they are liable for US federal income taxes. Some firms have tax equalization policies in Hong Kong and Singapore, but the trend for several years has been to do away with tax equalization in order to be more competitive in recruiting native Chinese and other top associates who are not US citizens or residents.

One of the most striking trends in 2010 regarding salary packages has been a shift toward paying New York-level base salaries to non-US qualified associates in Hong Kong. Traditionally, US-qualified associates have been paid about 20-30% more than their Commonwealth-qualified counterparts, and have gotten a much larger expat / COLA package as well. While an Australian-qualified associate might see a US$20,000/year expat package, her New York-qualified counterpart at the same firm could receive a US$65,000/year expat package, for example. Typically HK qualified associates have not received any expat / COLA package. These days, when a Hong Kong qualified junior to mid-level associate comes to us wanting to leave his or her current firm for another firm in Hong Kong, compensation considerations are usually a motivating factor. Of course, it is easier for a US firm building a new HK corporate practice to offer NYC top market base salaries to their few new HK qualified associate hires than it is for a well established and large HK practice to raise the salaries of their many HK practice associates.

As a result of rising expat packages, some mid-tier firms have begun specifying that they want to hire only non-US citizens for their open positions in order to save some portion of the expected expatriate compensation bonus. In view of the current trend to pay expat packages to even Commonwealth-qualified associates at many firms, this tactic seems to be losing its potency to reduce costs. Increasingly, the most qualified associates are all being tempted by potential expatriate benefits regardless of their country of origin.

While there was little change in expat allowances among the most highly regarded firms in Hong Kong during the global recession and hiring freezes, many among the less competitive firms dramatically lowered their allowances during ’09 and early ‘10, in many cases erroneously assuming that the top of the market were dramatically lowering theirs. Some of the firms that tried this were highly ranked US and UK firms. That trend (fortunately for associates) has reversed recently, with most firms that lowered their expat allowances now bringing those allowances back up to, and in some cases surpassing, the 2007 and 2008 levels.

Gaining Value from and Keeping Lateral Hires

In addition to attracting lateral hires through competitive salaries and benefits, firms know that they need to manage their talent so as to gain as much value as possible from their work over as long a period as possible. Whereas established New York and London offices of international firms typically have the size and deal flow predictability to support a full-fledged training program, complete with “mentorship,” “career development” partners, and the like, many Asia offices of law firms are only just beginning to acquire some of these structures. It is more difficult, therefore, for associates to obtain the necessary training. Associates in smaller overseas offices will have to rely on their supervising partner to play a strong mentoring role. Personality fit and partners’ desire and ability to train / mentor associates can thus be a bigger factor to associate retention in overseas offices than it is in large US or London home offices.

Corporate associates at US and UK firms in Asia usually move for one or more of the following reasons: a) compensation (usually having to do with expat / COLA allowances) concerns; b) desire for a more diverse corporate practice (usually due to more cap markets work than they expected; c) personality fit issue with supervising partner; d) concerns about long-term career advancement and security at current firm; e) a desire for more responsibility (every biglaw associate in Asia will know a number of same class year associates in the market that have higher levels of responsibility, based on a particular associate and firm’s circumstances); and f) being in an understaffed group and thus being overworked.

During boom times, the f) factor is the most prevalent reason for associate moves. Associate hires in US and UK based firms in Asia can be much more strategic and important than a typical associate hire in US and UK large home offices, for obvious reasons. Understaffing is a big problem in busy overseas offices, where one or two associates leaving a firm at the wrong time can cause the entire office to be overworked for months (replacement hires can take months, especially if the best candidates come from US or UK). Once a serious understaffing problem occurs, overworked associates will turn into unhappy associates and the firm involved will develop a reputation in the market (whether deserved or not) for being an unpleasant place to work.


eric seiger

Sea Ice <b>News</b> #22 | Watts Up With That?

Back in mid-August, I did some “technical analysis” on IARC-JAXA ice data in post http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/15/sea-ice-news-18/#comment-458213 The result was a prediction of Labour Day (September 6th) as the date of the minimum ...

Bad press for Saudi growth denounced - Arab <b>News</b>

By MUHAMMAD HUMAIDAN | ARAB NEWS. Published: Sep 11, 2010 23:52 Updated: Sep 11, 2010 23:52. JEDDAH: Makkah Gov. Prince Khaled Al-Faisal has strongly criticized what he called the “negative coverage” by the world media of the progress ...

The week in Android <b>News</b> | Android Central

Android news roundup This week we saw the Verizon Fascinate launch and controversy erupt over its default search engine, the T-Mobile G2 announced, Swype updated, and a plethora of other odds and ends.





















Saturday, September 11, 2010

Eric Seiger Says Let's Get it Done Already kgxqTM

Dr. Seiger has helped to develop new techniques for the safe removal and treatment of veins. He has frequently been eric seiger published in medical journals and sought out by the media to provide expert advice and commentary.


As a leader in the field of cosmetic surgery and enhancements at The Skin and Vein Center, Dr. Eric Seiger has been designated a National Certified Physician Trainer by the makers of both Botox and Restylane. His national eric seiger reputation for the use of cutting-edge technology and science has led many of the country's best known medical equipment manufacturers to ask him to introduce new products and procedures in the State of Michigan

eric seiger

Dr Eric S Seiger Skin and Vein of Michigan - Professional Summary: 

Dr. Eric S. Seiger is a prominent dermatologist and cosmetic surgeon and maintains a successful practice in the state of Michigan. A resident of Michigan, Dr. Eric S. Seiger contributes extensively to the medical community through his teaching positions and prolific publications. Dr. Eric S. Seiger is the Medical Director and owner of Skin & Vein Centers of Michigan, where he conducts numerous cosmetic and dermatological procedures, including mini-facelifts, Botox, Restylane, Thermage, chemical peels, laser tattoo removal, laser hair removal, and laser skin resurfacing.



eric seiger

Thursday, September 9, 2010

bank foreclosure


With office space selling 30% below the 2007 high in the top-10 US office markets, and with lease rates still falling, one should expect to see more foreclosures in major cities.

Chicago is about to be hit says Crain's Chicago Business in Office tower at 500 W. Monroe flirts with foreclosure — again

A Georgia firm that holds two junior mortgages on the 46-story tower at 500 W. Monroe St. says the building's loans went unpaid when they came due this month and that the company may foreclose and take control of the property.

It would be the first foreclosure of a major office tower in the Loop in 11 years and a sign that the market remains mired in the hangover of the debt-stoked valuation bubble that peaked in mid-2007. That's when Broadway Partners Fund Manager LLC, a once high-flying New York firm, bought 500 W. Monroe for $336.7 million, with a package of loans that made up more than 95% of the purchase price.

“These are the situations that have gotten awfully complex,” says Dan Fasulo, managing director at New York-based Real Capital Analytics Inc., a commercial real estate research firm. “This one looks untenable.”

Mr. Fasulo reckons that 500 W. Monroe could be worth about $240 million today, based on an estimate of the building's net operating income and the return investors would expect since the tower is just 70% leased. That would put its current value at roughly 30% below the 2007 purchase price, a decline in line with national trends. A report last week by New York-based Moody's Investors Service showed property values in the top 10 U.S. office markets have plummeted 31% since the 2007 peak.

Should 500 W. Monroe fall into foreclosure, it's unlikely to be the last, given the recession-stymied demand for office space and the wave of big loan maturities in coming years. Lenders so far largely have been willing to extend those loans, but that could change.

“This is an early canary in the coal mine,” says Rick Schuham, a Chicago-based executive vice-president at Studley Inc., a firm that represents office tenants. “There are plenty of tough stories out there.”
Big Wave of Commercial Foreclosures Coming

Bernanke's stimulus efforts did next to nothing for residential housing, and absolutely nothing for commercial real estate. With a wave of maturities coming due, and with lease prices still dropping, pressures on commercial real estate are enormous.

Moreover, it is crystal clear that the economy is headed back towards recession, assuming of course one believes the recession that started in 2007 ever ended.

I suggest the recession never ended in light of the fact 3rd Quarter GDP Likely Negative.

How much patience lenders have in a weakening economic environment to restructure loans remains to be seen, but surely it isn't infinite.

Big Wave of Bank Failures Coming


Given that regional banks are in general the ones with the most commercial real estate exposure, it should not be too difficult to look one step ahead and see the effects of another economic downturn on mid-sized banks.

Recovery a "Statistical Mirage"

Brace yourself because the recovery of 2009 was nothing but a statistical mirage fueled by unsustainable government spending and bank bailouts. That mirage is rapidly fading off into the sunset.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Demand: fewer new households

Household creation depends on the state of the economy. The combination of high unemployment, weak wage and salary growth, and tight credit has led to a decline in household growth over the past few years. The two main surveys of household formation from the Census Bureau – the Housing Vacancy Survey and Current Population Survey – show that about 500,000 households were created annually over the past three years compared to an annual average of about 1.2 million during the first half of the decade (Figure 6). How can we explain such a notable drop in household formation?

Moving in with the folks

The obvious answer is to look at homeownership rates, which have tumbled to 66.9% from a peak of 69.2% in 4Q04. This translates to a loss of nearly 2.5 mn homeowners. Most of these homeowners became renters, which means they remain a household, but not all. As can be seen by the surge in the rental vacancy rate to 10.6%, it seems that there was not a perfect shift from homeowners to renters (Figure 7). This begs the question: what happened to these former households? There was doubling up among economically stressed households; in other words people moved in with friends or family. Many of these former homeowners were probably foreclosure victims (Figure 8).

As Figure 8 shows, household formation can also decline if there are fewer young households created to replace the aging homeowners. Given the nearly 10 point surge in the unemployment rate among 16 to 24 year olds from the trough to peak during this cycle, it seems like this was a considerable factor. A recent paper sponsored by the Research Institute for Housing America estimates that the probability of a young adult forming a household declines by 4% during a recession, and up to 10% if unemployed. In addition to the slowdown in “headship rates” domestically, there was a drop in household formation from immigration. According to the Office of Immigration Statistics at the Department of Homeland Security, the number of unauthorized immigrants decline by 1.0 million from 2007 to 2009 compared to a net gain of 1.3 million from 2005 to 2007.

Household growth to improve, but with a lag

Household formation will naturally pick up as the economy improves, but if our forecast for a sluggish recovery is realized, household growth will also be lackluster. The main factor influencing household growth will be the state of the labor market. The above-referenced paper finds that the unemployment rate must fall by 2pp from current levels to return to normal rates of household formation of about 1.2-1.4 million a year. We do not expect the unemployment rate to reach the mid-7% range until 2013, implying another two and a half years of sluggish household formation of about 800,000 a year. This is also when we expect the pace of foreclosures to slow notably, which means that fewer households will have to double-up.

Looking ahead to 2013 and beyond, we use forecasts from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. They present two possible trajectories for household growth: 1) an average of 1.48 million annually through 2020 assuming net immigration returns to the 2000-05 pace and headship rates at 2008 levels; and 2) an average of 1.25 million annually through 2020 assuming the same 2008 headship rates but slower immigration. We believe the latter is more likely and use this as our baseline forecast (Figure 9).

Renters will take market share

Although we expect household formation to start to improve in 2013, the homeownership rate should still fall further, suggesting that most of the gain in households will be due to an increase in renters. This is because there is still a considerable number of homeowners with mortgages in some stage of delinquency that are likely to end in foreclosure. Based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, there are about 5.5 mn seriously delinquent mortgages currently outstanding.

A recent paper by economists at the NY Federal Reserve (Haughwout, Andrew, Richard Peach, Joseph Tracy. “The Homeownership Gap”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Volume 16, Number 5, May 2010) attempts to quantify the effective lower bound for the homeownership rate. They make the assumption that underwater borrowers (negative equity), who currently account for about a quarter of mortgage holders, will transition to renters over time. Subtracting these underwater borrowers yields an “effective homeownership rate” of 61.6% (Figure 10). This would be a record low in the data which goes back to 1965. We do not expect such a precipitous drop because not all underwater homeowners will become renters. Indeed, a recent study by Trulia.com and RealtyTrac found that 59% of respondents would not go into foreclosure simply because of negative equity. We believe it is more likely that the homeownership rate will bottom at 65%, returning to mid-1990s levels.

It is plainly obvious why the demand-side is so often ignored in polite conversation: it is the consumer-driven aspect of the house price variable, over which neither the Fed, nor the Treasury, nor the FHA has any authority, and which is a function purely of expectations of the future. Alas, those right now are lously and getting worse. We expect that Demand-side housing economics will take on progressively more importance in the future, as it becomes obvious that no amount of Supply-side tinkering will prevent another 20% drop in prices.

And speaking of Supply, this is also a critical factor, if much more prevalent in the daily media. Alas, that in itself does not make the problem any easier to resolve.


eric seiger

Fox <b>News</b> Won&#39;t Cover The Koran Burning

I remember years ago when flag burning was an issue, I think it was the city council in News Orleans that reduced the penalty for assault & battery on a flag burner to a misdemeanor. Not suggesting assault & battery is ever okay, ...

Brad Friedman and Desi Doyen: Green <b>News</b> Report: September 9, 2010 <b>...</b>

IN 'GREEN NEWS EXTRA' (see links below): German military freaked out by prospect of peak oil; China dominates clean energy industry by skirting trade rules; NASA fosters greener aviation future; Virginia attorney general vows to try ...

<b>News</b> of the World deserves no praise for John Higgins entrapment <b>...</b>

Paper's sting operation on naive John Higgins was a disgrace.


























Wednesday, September 8, 2010

how to lose weight fast without diet

build muscle mass depending on the type of exercise that you do. As you diet and exercise and ultimately lose bodyfat you want to have enough tone and mass to achieve that fit and toned look.

people have successfully used the diet because it is so easy and it is designed by a doctor.
You start the program by filling out a profile of age, gender, weight height and target weight. Once completed you will receive a complete diet profile.
Once you receive your diet profile you enter the first of the three phases of the program. Phase one last for two weeks. This is where you get rid of all your cravings by eliminating most starches, sugars, alcohol or fruits. This is to stabilize your blood work.
You can have lean meat, chicken,turkey,fish and shellfish. Eat lots of vegetables, eggs ,low fat cheese and certain types of nuts.
If you can make through the first two or three days of phase one you will be amazed how easy it is after that.
You will eat three times a day and

First of you must know that you did gain all of those weight because of the foods you eat. Not only that but how and when you eat your food. The first thing that you need to do is overhaul your meal plans. Create a meal plan of your own if you don't have one. You must eliminate all of the unhealthy foods that you eat, especially foods that are rich on fats and oil. Include fruits and vegetables in your meals. These are very rich in vitamins and minerals that the body needs. It is also a great source of fiber. Most important of all that you don't ever skip a meal. When you miss a meal your body goes to what they call a "starvation mode". When the body experience hunger, it will make you rebound or eat more in your next meal then instead of using the food as energy it will store the food turning it into fats. Keep your stomach guessing on when is the next meal by eating more often during the day. That doesn't mean you have to eat more. What I'm trying to say is that you should have at least 2 or 3 small snacks besides your 3 regular meals.

Nothing works on How to Lose Weight Fast more than doing a regular exercise. Most people expect that you have to go to the gym when you do some exercise. There are many ways that you could do some exercise without spending money how to lose weight fast by going into a gym. If you have a treadmill at home you could use it and start running for at least 30minutes a day. If you don't have a treadmill then you could run on the park. It is more effective if you could have your exercise before eating your breakfast. Weight lifting could not only make your muscles work but is a great way to increase your metabolism rate.

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Me and Tommy the Midtown Menace at Mood Lounge by dcsmith2752002



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